this post was submitted on 01 Aug 2024
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This has been a doozy of a year. And it's the best year so far blah blah. So how are you all coping? Does it hit anyone else like a bolt of lightning that probably I - we - won't die of old age?

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[–] [email protected] 45 points 4 months ago (3 children)

I don‘t. I‘m accepting that i, as an individual, will not be able to impact it and so i‘m pretty much going with it. Humanity will survive, thats for sure but i make sure to make the most of it in the time where it‘s still bearable.

[–] [email protected] 16 points 4 months ago (4 children)

Humanity will survive

........will it though?

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (2 children)

Some humans somewhere will survive. We're the most adaptable and intelligent species on the planet

[–] [email protected] 6 points 4 months ago

We're the most adaptable and intelligent species on the planet

Which makes all the other life on earth really sad if you think about it. /s

It’s easy to fall into doomerism, but the truth is we are incredible in taking immediate dangers head on. We just happen to be shit tier in doing something against anything vague in the future. A human TPK, without tapping into SciFi, is out of the question.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

We are the most intelligent, not the most adaptable by a long shot.

That also doesn't guarantee anything, we are smart not capable of impossible feats of magic. If the situation is irreversible that's what it is and you die. The end.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago

Yes, don't be ridiculous

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

Nah. It's only been around a very, very short time and it won't remain much longer despite probably being one of the longer stints the planet's seen of life so far. We should still get to punch MAN into the high score screen and be seen by other players later on, like we saw with DNO.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago

My guess is humanity will, but society probably won't, at least not in or near it's current form.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

I think I'm on an accepting phase too.

I've been through a lot personally and emotionally since I started reading about collapse 9 years ago.

I had a look at this publication a few years ago, it put me in a rough place for a few days.

Recalibration of limits to growth: An update of the World3 model

https://slrpnk.net/pictrs/image/22b9ba56-4ef1-49a6-8587-887bd74a0701.jpeg

Humanity will survive I'm certain of it, however our thermo industrial civilization will not and most of the people currently living in the planet will not.

It will happen whatever I personally do.

The best I can do now is to find ways to have the happiest life I can using as little ressources as possible for my family, my community (neighbors, friends ...) and me. It's a process that forces us to reassess a lot of things we were doing but it is fascinating.

Practically it means finding ways to lower our monthly expenses, try to consume local as much as possible and learning a lot of new techniques..

[–] [email protected] -3 points 4 months ago (5 children)

I am educated in science and I do not think humanity will survive, no. Most megafauna will probably die out. There are ~10 planetary boundaries and we've crossed a lot of them. Earthquakes and volcanoes will start picking up. AMOC collapse could be as soon as 2025.

[–] [email protected] 15 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Uh, what? Earthquakes and volcanoes due to climate changes?

[–] [email protected] 17 points 4 months ago

Earthquakes and Volcanic Activity has been tied to sea level and air pressure changes. So one leading theory is that climate changes will more likely than not cause more activity, however the last year has shown no such changes yet Source on last year activity

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

AMOC collapse could be as soon as 2025.

No. I also read that. There was a prediction that AMOC collapse might be inevitable by 2025 and take a couple centuries to happen.

We have pretty good evidence the currents are slowing, but no real data to predict if and when it might stop. A couple researchers made a prediction that is not currently accepted by the field. It’s just pretty dire, but would affect a few generations from now even if true

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

No, it won't take a couple of centuries to happen, you misread. The collapse will most likely happen before 2050 according to new research which speeds up the timeline on the old research. The various environmental fields do actually agree on this and it's accepted.

The impacts of an AMOC collapse would leave parts of the world unrecognizable.

In the decades after a collapse, Arctic ice would start creeping south, and after 100 years, would extend all the way down to the southern coast of England. Europe’s average temperature would plunge, as would North America’s – including parts of the US. The Amazon rainforest would see a complete reversal in its seasons; the current dry season would become the rainy months, and vice versa.

That means the collapse will happen, with immediate consequences as well as consequences that won't stabilize for over 100 years, not taking into account other destabilizing forces. Like can you read?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Nothing you quoted even says it will happen, much less that the effects will be immediate

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Then you should recall that some of the largest megafauna ever lived for tens of millions of years at much higher temperatures(and therefore sea levels)

[–] [email protected] 4 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

At higher temps that changed over thousands of years gradually. This is not that. And that's even if "high temp" was the ONLY planetary boundary being crossed. It is not. There are numerous SIMULTANEOUS extinction events happening. And we know megafauna isn't surviving this time because we are in the middle of a major extinction event already. Millions of sea life and millions and millions of birds and insects are dead already, from being boiled alive in the ocean to starvation to pollution to bird flu.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Extinction of individual unfit species doesn't mean the total collapse of life.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Individual unfit species like ALL birds and ALL insects and ALL sea life and ALL fish? Not including ALL corals and ALL trees (forest fires). Lol what's left, really? In terms of biomass, that's like, most of it.

That we are in an extinction event is widely known in the scientific community.

https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/09/human-driven-mass-extinction-eliminating-entire-genera

^There, read up. Sorry to break the news to you.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

like ALL birds and ALL insects and ALL sea life and ALL fish?

Where does it say that???

Not including ALL corals and ALL trees (forest fires).

Coral life is dying for the most part, but not everywhere

Global forest area loss has significantly slowed, and seems to be continuing to go down

Wildfires are not a significant risk to global forest coverage.

Annual wildfire area is declining year over year, and is overwhelming a risk to savanna, shrublands, and grasslands

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

What I mean is that ALL species in those categories are affected. It's not 1 or 3 species, it's affecting literally every species across those Phylla. Your claim was that is was a few unfit species. It's not, it's all the species.

Several tree species in the US are undergoing extinction due to forest fires, including the Redwoods: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/08/23/extinct-tree-species-sequoias/

The coral thing you posted is kinda laughable, sorry to be rude when you're facing total annihilation of most life on this planet, but I have been chuckling about that for a couple of minutes. https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-confirms-4th-global-coral-bleaching-event

"From February 2023 to April 2024, significant coral bleaching has been documented in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres of each major ocean basin," said Derek Manzello, Ph.D., NOAA CRW coordinator.

“Climate model predictions for coral reefs have been suggesting for years that bleaching impacts would increase in frequency and magnitude as the ocean warms,” said Jennifer Koss, director of NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program (CRCP).

The 2023 heatwave in Florida was unprecedented. It started earlier, lasted longer and was more severe than any previous event in that region.

NOAA made significant strides to offset some of the negative impacts of global climate change and local stressors on Florida’s corals, including moving coral nurseries to deeper, cooler waters and deploying sunshades to protect corals in other areas.

(Do you see how NOAA was unable to fix the root cause of bleaching at any level? This is our governments failing us)

Global forest area LOSS has slowed. Meaning how much we are losing is going down, but we are still losing it.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/US/record-breaking-wildfires-occurred-northern-hemisphere-2023-new/story%3fid=103169036

Boreal forests in regions all over the world have been experiencing the worst wildfires in recorded history in 2023, according to new research.

The total wildfire emissions for 2023 is estimated to be almost 410 megatonnes, the highest on record for Canada by a wide margin, according to the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service dataset, which provides information on the location, intensity, and estimated emission of wildfires around the world. The previous annual record was set in 2014 at 138 megatonnes of carbon.

It isn't even close to the end of 2024 fire season so I gave an article from 2023.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

What I mean is that ALL species in those categories are affected.

Effected yes, going extinct? No.

We are specifically talking about if all life will be wiped out.

[–] [email protected] -2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Yes, it will be. Where is your confusion here?

Stuff was not as bad before.

Now stuff pretty bad.

We have done nothing to deal with that and in fact are still just making stuff worse (maybe some stuff is not making stuff worse at the same rate as before)

Stuff gets worse exponentially

Already extinction in the millions and billions is happening

Will extinct more next year at an exponential rate, bc we have done nothing and all solutions will take decades

All those species are affected meaning they are dying.

Ecology means that's bad, stuff relies on each other

Chemistry means that's bad, stuff relies on each other and certain Temps to happen

All around all science says, it's bad

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Nothing you've shown says that 100% of species will go extinct xd

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Okay, well you're free to believe as you'd like. I'm fine with agreeing to disagree. The math checks out really clearly to me, "exponentially getting worse" is pretty clear in meaning.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

If a population exponentially grows does that mean it will continue infinitely? Why would the reverse be certain to be different?

[–] [email protected] -1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

If a population is given infinite resources, sure, theoretically. The energy that comes from the sun is cumulative and may as well be considered infinite since the sun isn't going out any time soon. Did you really think that was a gotchya?

Look at every other planet. That ours happens to be energetically at a temp to support life is the exception. The rule in the universe is that it's literally unlivable for us everywhere else we know of. Literally. This is pretty much it.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

If a population is given infinite resources, sure, theoretically.

I didn't say they were given infinite resources. I said if a population is growing exponentially does that mean it will continue to do so.

The energy that comes from the sun is cumulative and may as well be considered infinite since the sun isn't going out any time soon.

Yeah?

Did you really think that was a gotchya?

What? It was a question you didn't answer. Why do you assume just because something is exponential that it will continue. Another example- transistor size in processors exponentially shrinks. Does that mean eventually it's going to reach zero nm? (hint the answer is no)

I'm also not saying that this disproves something can exponentially fall to zero. I'm just saying, stating the current relationship doesn't guarantee it will continue.

Look at every other planet. That ours happens to be energetically at a temp to support life is the exception.

Earth is very far removed from other planets in terms of atmospheric conditions.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago) (1 children)

If given infinite resources, yes. I answered you.

The current population will likely be zero, perhaps simply approaching the limit of zero if tardigrades and extremophiles survive. But in terms of multicellular life, yeah, there can be a zero for sure. Because the energy from the sun can theoretically increase exponentially.

It would be cool if our ozone was working perfectly, then, huh? But it's not any more, and is getting worse: https://www.eea.europa.eu/en/topics/in-depth/climate-change-mitigation-reducing-emissions/current-state-of-the-ozone-layer

[–] [email protected] 3 points 4 months ago (1 children)

If given infinite resources, yes. I answered you.

I again didn't ask that. Its also not true for all populations(such as human populations)

The current population will likely be zero, perhaps simply approaching the limit of zero if tardigrades and extremophiles survive. But in terms of multicellular life, yeah, there can be a zero for sure.

I did ask if there can be either. I asked why you assume it would be.

It would be cool if our ozone was working perfectly, then, huh? But it’s not any more, and is getting worse:

That source seems to indicate that they're not entirely sure why it is getting worse, but it is a combination of factors. However NASA and the the UN say recovery of the ozone layer is still on track for 2040.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

I explained why right after that next sentence if you keep reading

The ozone layer was worse in 2023 compared to 2022 so idk how that's "on track" but okay

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Because if you read, it was predicted to be an anomaly and not a trend

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago (1 children)

They don't know what's causing that anomaly. So it could indeed be a trend.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 4 months ago (1 children)

It could be, but why do you assume it is?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago* (last edited 4 months ago)

Why don't you? If there was a 98% chance your car could explode if you went 30mph-80mph, would you be cautious about going 29mph? Wouldn't you not get close to the lower reference range?

Because that lower reference range is still the reference range. 2025 is still the lower end of the reference range for AMOC collapse, which we expect to have cascading consequences including possible earthquakes and volcanoes.

And honestly, attitudes like yours are exactly what convinced me we were going to die tbh. The people who dissociate and refuse to acknowledge any kind of negative reality because they don't enjoy the biochemical state of being upset. The pandemic, the election - people like you who gaslight about what we can literally see in front of our faces - I get it. You refuse to accept there's a problem so we all will die for it. Cool. I already know. You don't have to keep trying to convince me you all are in severe denial. I won't join you.

[–] [email protected] 0 points 4 months ago (1 children)

Can you please elaborate on what you mean by "educated in science"?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 4 months ago

I have taken a variety of science classes, especially in biology but also in chemistry, engineering, and physics, at undergrad and masters level at multiple decent universities.