this post was submitted on 24 Feb 2024
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I guaran-fucking-tee that stock will crash as soon as IPO starts.
I feel like a lot of people wanna short it out of spite and a whale is gonna squeeze them out with a big buy like 2 weeks into trading. If puts are cheap I might grab one just for fun. It'm curious to see how WSB plays it.
Same
God I miss that sub from back in the day, theres nothing quite like it.
Pre GME they would've buried them, for fun ofc
Post GME prob have bots shilling it to lurkers wondering the same thing
After the price falls, I see them having a future as a data company. They already have 1 customer paying them $60m annually. Regardless of it's future, they have over a decades worth of data in many areas. Spez already got his though.
Thats a good point, however I don't forsee users staying there for long. So as you said they will have to milk their data for however long. That requires them writing good contracts that don't give everything away all at once, as I've seen done in some companies I worked for, as well as maintaining a demand. But I don't see any way Reddit can grow from here, their ~~cattle~~ users, as well as moderators are being treated extremely poorly. They are the product and Spez is doing his best to destroy his product.
Edit: Reddit reported its 2023 revenue was $804 million. Net loss was $90.8 million in 2023.
If I understand this correctly operating costs are ~890 mil. In order for them to be valued at 10 billion, they would have to at least bring in 100 mil profits. So they will have to increase annual contracts by 200 mil, or cut costs by 200 mil. All while maintaining user base happy. If they decide to cash out completely and live off the data they already own, they could probably cut costs drastically, let the website go to shit and hope they can live off of contracts for access to their already existing data for however long assuming they don't fuck it up as mentioned. Also in that scenario ad revenue stream would go down.
Companies like Tesla can survive high valuation with no dividends, well, it's a meme stock, but also the possibility still exists that they will pay out. There is already a lot of bad will against Reddit, and I see no way Reddit can grow and pay decent dividends unless they spin in a drastically different directiong.
Maybe, but I think it'll take a bit longer. Reddit'll be given some artificial value, then the initial stock will be flogged at 80% of that to make people think they're getting a good deal, so loads of people will buy it, then the price'll shoot up, so loads more people will buy that; meanwhile Spez'll cash out his billions then when the true value of Reddit is realised there'll be a "correction" - i.e. a crash, and the last bunch of suckers to buy will be sitting on a huge loss that'll take years to recover from as it slowly inches back up by a couple of percent a year.
Man, I can't wait