this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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More? Welp, I'm gonna keep saying it. Take with a grain of salt, I'm a tech guy not a geopolitical knowledge base:
The US is trying to move TSMC operations to US soil.
I'll copy and paste it again:
I will keep reposting my thoughts on what's going on.
Xi told Biden that China plans to invade Taiwan. This is an act of diplomacy, giving the US a chance to prevent this from triggering WWIII.
China wants Taiwan for a myriad of reasons, not the least of which is TSMC, coupled with the AI embargo the US has levied on China. China must invade Taiwan if they want to be relevant in the tech sector 10 years from now.
Suddenly, Intel, who was once competitive with TSMC and now relies on them entirely, is telling us that "we will be beyond TSMC by 2024" really? No one's buying it. Sounds like a publicity headline to satisfy military brass or some senators or something.
Now we're investing directly in domestic chip manufacturing.
I'm surprised it's not more cash tbh.
Update: it is more cash. A lot more.
The US is trying to effectively move TSMC operations to US soil, in some form or another.
We’re just ignoring that a key part of taiwanese defense planning is self destructing the chip plants in the event of an invasion?
No I'm more focusing on the tensions surrounding those chip plants. And how were doing everything we can to prevent the destruction of those chip plants from affecting Google, Amazon, Meta, Military operations, etc.
I think it's the epicenter of a potential trigger point for God damn ww3, especially given the current state of geopolitical tensions.
I only bring it all up when I see news that continues to confirm that it appears this is the direction it's moving.
Y'all seen the tensions flaring in the South China sea? Shit is heating up.
this is outdated information, and if you are going to copy-paste it around you should fix and probably adjust it. china has reasons for wanting to "unify" Taiwan and it's not about TSMC, that would be a nice bonus. but it's really not about it and their tech sector is not reliant on it.
their tech sector does not use TSMC chips today, their own chip fabs are actually doing surprisingly well. which is the reason that the US has been trying to build up their own chip manufacturing for a while, china got good and TSMC's future isn't predictable.
the US isn't trying to move TSMC to US soil, they can't move the infrastructure, the majority of the people and (importantly) the location - all of which are what make TSMC special (the lithography machines are from europe and elsewhere). The US just wants options and industry in an unpredictable market where their biggest competitor has made significant ground
There is a lot inaccurate about your response, but I'm going to focus on the most glaring part:
No they are not. And not it is not. For what reason would the US close down all chip manufacturing plants in China if we didn't have something we were keeping from China? They are not doing surprisingly well, they were incredibly dependent on TSMC, which they have been choked off of as of October 2023.
So maybe this comes from a place of ignorance. But America doesn't have anything here. Literally. The machines and optics are designed and made in Europe. The design libraries that are used to build chips out are licensed globally.
TSMC is the leading fab because they constantly invest huge amounts of money in the newest machines and tech (they don't develop) and they have excellent yield working with them thanks to a focus on procedures that prioritize yield over throughput.
There's no secret sauce here, China can and has managed to produce really surprisingly excellent chip fabs in the last few years. They can purchase the asml machines like anyone else can.
Except, they can't. ASML has been banned by the Netherlands from exporting tools to China.
The government should give the Taiwanese a very simple way to move the US so they can work on those very advance semiconductors and be safe from the war that will eventually come.
Being friends with America is always a risky situation.
America is like that friend that loves hanging out, riding shotgun in your car and doing stuff. But one day they get their own car and you never see them again. They are also that friend that takes their ball and goes home when they lose.
China invading Taiwan is a fantasy for the foreseeable future.
We have seen what hastily deployed US weapons can do against Russian hardware in the Ukrainian invasion.
Taiwan has been stockpiling US weapons(missiles, jets, tanks) for decades, and Chinese hardware and doctrine is not as proven as the Russians. China will see immense losses for their prize, and that’s if nobody intervenes.
Taiwan doesn't have the defensive depth Ukraine has. Ukraine took days to respond in any organized way and the world took weeks to respond with additional aid. An invasion of Taiwan can be decided in a single day if China manages to land large quantities of troops and push into the island.
While the beach landing part makes their job tough, if China merely thinks they can overcome that singular hurdle, there is a very, very real possibility they will take a shot at it.
Take a look at Taiwan's inventory of anti-ship missiles and coastal defenses and get back to me. Last I checked Taiwan has roughly 1 harpoon for every Chinese combat ship, assuming China wants to commit their entire navy to the invasion.
If China doesn't commit every ship to the invasion, now you have more than 1 harpoon per Chinese ship.
Nevermind other types of anti-ship defenses and domestically produced missiles.
And again, Taiwan has had these weapons for DECADES. They train on them, then know how to deploy them. It will not take days to respond, because they are ready. They will simply launch and the missiles will sink some ships.
If China decides to invade it will be at the cost of a significant portion of their navy and army before they even reach land. Then China has to face significant risk of retaliation from Taiwan's cruise missile fleet, some of which can hit as far as Beijing.
Then at this point China will risk their various border disputes being contested.
And all this for what? Some destroyed chip factories and the CCP flag over Taipei?
China can certainly invade Taiwan, but my point is the cost is too high for it to be a logical move.