this post was submitted on 28 Jan 2024
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Take a look at Taiwan's inventory of anti-ship missiles and coastal defenses and get back to me. Last I checked Taiwan has roughly 1 harpoon for every Chinese combat ship, assuming China wants to commit their entire navy to the invasion.
If China doesn't commit every ship to the invasion, now you have more than 1 harpoon per Chinese ship.
Nevermind other types of anti-ship defenses and domestically produced missiles.
And again, Taiwan has had these weapons for DECADES. They train on them, then know how to deploy them. It will not take days to respond, because they are ready. They will simply launch and the missiles will sink some ships.
If China decides to invade it will be at the cost of a significant portion of their navy and army before they even reach land. Then China has to face significant risk of retaliation from Taiwan's cruise missile fleet, some of which can hit as far as Beijing.
Then at this point China will risk their various border disputes being contested.
And all this for what? Some destroyed chip factories and the CCP flag over Taipei?
China can certainly invade Taiwan, but my point is the cost is too high for it to be a logical move.