this post was submitted on 14 Jan 2024
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Web 2.0 desperately clinging to life. FOSS self hosted web is the future. Internet speeds are fast enough on home networks that self hosting is perfectly viable for essentially everything, and for the few things that can't be self hosted by just anyone, FOSS alternatives and work arounds to existing paid services exist.
Internet is becoming harder to monopolize, and increasing amounts of power and control are being handed back to the working class online. FOSS has become a movement that has grown exponentially over the last few years.
Their next recourse will be attempting to make jail time a thing for piracy. Both for hosting it and downloading it.
There's certainly a bubble bursting. You only have to look at all the layoffs.fyi since COVID. I'm just hoping it's happening in a slow enough way that it's not going to take more legitimate companies with it.
AI is the next bubble. It will hit a brick wall either legally or just on functionality (maybe both). I can see uses for targeted models, bespoke to a use case, but training those is too expensive right now. General models are just toys IMHO. Unfortunately it's going to get a few years for everyone to realise.
The brick wall on AI is not functionality. It's cost of running the neural networks. It's simply not financially realistic to integrate ChatGPT into everything.
Ha, yeah sure, and trains will never go faster than 15mph.
Natural language computing is huge at the moment because it's a huge and significant development in computing - yes there are lots of shitty ai girlfriend apps and the same goes for generative ai there are lots of shitty art apps but human language interfaces aren't going away nor are generative design tools.
Even just the coding tools already available for free are a game changer, every single programmer I know and all the coding communities I'm in are using chatGPT regularly. When generative design gets into other areas such as cad and cam with natural language and problem solving (as in task based algorithms like the Go solver) then you'll start to see the how ubiquitous and significant these technologies are.
I understand why you'd look at the first commercial computers and think that no normal person will ever have a use for them but look at where we are now. The same is true for ai, current stuff is amazing when carefully worked and it takes a lot to get it all wired in but as the ecosystem of code grows and training sets become better established everything becomes much easier which enables more effective use cases.
You are going to train the AI that replaces you. They aren't going to tell you that though. I'm starting comprehensive plans so that any future work I do can't be fed into AI. Making hardware that just dumps random input when I'm not using it. Isolating and containing any human input that does happen. Distributing my work across as many devices as possible to only give each it's single app use worth of data.
It's not so simple. I've been trying to go the foss self-hosted way, as well as help p2p projects, and I got stuck because I'm behind a cgnat, unable to forward ports, and my shitty isp has no ipv6. I can't afford vpns at the moment, so I got stuck. Besides, all that needed a lot of tech skills most people won't have. This is a serious barrier of entry for a lot of people.
It does seem like FLOSS is experiencing a renaissance due to rampant commercialization of the web
Some one will say something offensive or a slight threat and the government will charge you for a crime like you did it.
They want the Internet to be HR speak only.
That would require every government worldwide to be on board. Then you'll have a couple holdouts, and they'll take in the dough from everyone wanting to host their content there. While there is a mile-long wishlist from the powers that be, they're still going to chase what's profitable.
Until ISPs start cracking down harder than they already are.
Jail time already is a thing for piracy. Seriously investigate the history of TPB if you dont already known it, or refresh your memory of it if you do
Have you ever pirated something? If so, have you ever been sent to jail for it?
I'm not talking about hosting companies. Yes, I am aware that prosecution exists for them and has been a thing a long time. I'm saying they're going to start pushing for end users to face jail time as well. It's the only real recourse they have.