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I'm not saying he'll win by any means. That's what he thinks he's building up for though. Putin seems of the opinion if he can slowly bleed Ukraine then if/when he pushes into NATO, they'll be tapped out, and he can win with meat grinder tactics, as long as the US doesn't show up. Which is possible with Trump knee capping our military, and bringing in a lot of meat shields from North Korea, and maybe a bunch of Chinese that Xi doesn't like.
What I don't think he gets, is that Poland alone could very likely erase Russia, right now. And they would very much not be alone. And they're backed stopped with French and UK nukes. So there's a hard limit to how far he's going to get. Although I think the world will be a much worse place if France has to use their nuclear warning shot doctrine.