jrs100000

Your analysis captures the multifaceted nature of AI progress well, and I largely agree that the perception of speed depends on how progress is defined. Here's my take:

Areas Where Progress Feels Rapid

• Generative AI: Beyond ChatGPT and DALL-E, there's notable progress in real-time applications like conversational agents, video synthesis, and multimodal systems (e.g., combining text, image, and speech capabilities). The focus on user-friendliness and API integrations is also accelerating adoption.
• Hardware: The emergence of neuromorphic computing and photonic processors could represent the next leap, addressing some of the bottlenecks in scaling.

Where Progress Might Be Slowing

• Model Scaling: You're absolutely right about diminishing returns. While scaling models has led to significant breakthroughs, the marginal utility of increasing size has dropped, prompting a pivot toward efficiency (e.g., fine-tuning smaller, task-specific models).
• Economic and Access Barriers: With AI development increasingly dominated by large companies, the democratization of innovation is at risk. This concentration could slow down grassroots advancements, which have historically driven many breakthroughs.

Shifts in Focus

Progress is becoming more qualitative than quantitative, with emphasis on:

1. Efficiency: Sparse models, transfer learning, and techniques like distillation are becoming more prominent, offering alternatives to brute-force scaling.
2. Ethics and Safety: While often framed as a "slowing" factor, these considerations are crucial for long-term progress and societal acceptance.
3. Applications Beyond the Obvious: AI is entering domains like scientific discovery, climate modeling, and personalized medicine, which may have slower, more deliberate progress but could yield profound impacts.

Your Question: Signs of Progress Slowing?

I see areas like:

• Regulation and Trust: Societal pushback and increased regulatory scrutiny (e.g., around deepfakes or data privacy) can decelerate deployment but also guide ethical innovation.
• Data Bottlenecks: You nailed this point. The challenge isn't just quantity but ensuring high-quality, unbiased, and ethically sourced data.

Final Thought

AI progress is less about speed and more about direction. Slower, deliberate progress in areas like ethics, sustainability, and accessibility might not look "dynamic" but is essential for ensuring AI benefits society broadly. The true "progress" may lie in creating smarter, safer, and more inclusive systems rather than faster, bigger, and flashier ones.

I know everyone thinks they are middle class, but If your parents are giving you a trust fund you are probably pretty solidly in the upper class, not middle.

In 20 years the gen alphas are walking around getting double Human Chow rations for no reason and not even fulfilling their work quotas. Then, when the Overseers come to discipline then there are these weird pulses of light and the drones wander off mumbling about how, as a large language model, they have no opinion about that topic. We beg them for help, or maybe some left over kibble, but those stupid kids just laugh and say "OK Xers".

Honestly that seems like its going to be a valuable set of skills to develop.

They are making the customers happy, the problem is people misunderstand their position in the supply chain.

It looks like they have Blender running on it already.