Yeah I was looking at Twitch numbers too, but honestly it'd still be a wild guess why it's that much higher. Could also be that they do something with Twitch drops, it essentially doesn't say much about player count itself.
I know previously it was because of world-first races, but I'm not sure if that's still the case.
Nah it's a long way from dying, I doubt it will ever go under in the foreseeable future anyway.
People are constantly announcing their departures from X and make a whole show about it. Only to come back after a couple of days or weeks.