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World war III and after that NATO countries occupying Russia. Probably quite some people die and things get destroyed in the process.
I think if they're smart they destabilize the regime and go for Putin. And not fight the whole country and population of Russia.
Russia is obliterated shortly followed by Russian nukes shortly followed by the end of humanity as a speicies.
For starters: amassing troops at the russian is a warning.
But I think a coordinated attack by NATO could neutralize all russian air power, at least in the western part. Thus preventing Russia from waging war in Ukraine or making any attacks on NATO countries in return.
Nuclear war is not plausible due to Mutual Assured Destruction.
Everyone I've read here is talking about Russia immediately launching their nukes, but among so many nations, surely several would think to do something sneaky to disarm the nukes before anyone launches a full-on attack against Russia.