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this post was submitted on 18 Aug 2024
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what are the likely outcomes?
Putin launches nukes, huge amount of civilians die, russian military is crushed within next few months. NATO wins at the cost of horrible loss of civilians killed by russian nukes. World economy shrinks considerably
So, this is the same analysis I read like a year ago. Do you feel that the current situation is not different enough now to indicate an alternate course of events?
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(3 replies)
Eric Schlosser's book, "Command and Control" may be of interest to you. I found it hard to put down.
Daniel Ellsberg's book, "The Doomsday Machine" might come closer to answering your question, but I have not read it.
I haven't been paying to much attention to the news but I've heard that other, non-NATO, countries have threatened some of the countries that are just simply giving aid to Ukraine. So, I'd assume that those other countries would get involved in some way and just make things worse for everyone.
About those nukes…
I'm sure they were kept at the same tip top condition as the rest of the russian military complex's equipment.
Possibly. But even if 99% of their strategic arsenal is junk, they'd still be left with 17 working warheads. Who's gonna risk 17 large cities wiped out?
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Ukraine has no nuclear weapons. Nuclear arsenal is basically meant to face nato/USA in Russia.
Ukraine invading Russia is a humiliation. But it's not a real threat for now. Russia didn't even declared the state of war yet.
I've heard that Russia can't really use atomic bomb against Ukraine because Ukraine has no atomic bombs itself. If it did, it would spark nuclear proliferation by breaking a tabou. And China wouldn't allow that, because they don't want Taiwan to get the bomb.
But nato is an atomic power. Thus, atomic bombs are fair game.