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if locks kept people out, there would be almost no theft, like 90% reduction. if someone wants in, they're getting in.
You are generalizing but I understand what you're trying to say. Locks aren't magical or anything, it's just metal, right? But they work pretty well. Anybody could be tempted to take a bike if it's just sitting there unlocked. Anybody.
But locked bikes are stolen much less than unlocked bikes, so locks work. Locks do keep people out. ๐โโ๏ธ
Locks discourage theives, but don't actually stop them. They can break your lock; the lock only helps if it makes it more effort than it's worth, usually by making easier to go steal the one further down the rack that has no lock, or a less secure lock.
But there are two halves to the equation: the difficulty of breaking the lock, and the value of the item that's locked up. The more valuable the locked item is, the more effort is worthwhile. Thus, a rusty bike with a good lock is less likely to be stolen than a fancy new bike with a good lock
A discouraged thief is a stopped thief in my book. ๐คทโโ๏ธ
And here we arrive to the point of the original post. Value of the bike vs. Risk involved in retrieving it. A POS bike with a moderately good lock is far less likely to get stolen than a Canyon 7K e-bike with a lock that you can saw through in 3-4 minutes with a Li-ion battery powered angle grinder.
๐คทโโ๏ธ
I think the point I'm trying to make is a good enough lock should prevent the theft. Unless the value is absolutely ridiculous. But of course if you can drag the slider of value infinitely high then yes, correct. But then I can also drag the slider of strong lock infinitely high.