this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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I'm personally fairly optimistic based on how much the fediverse has already grown over the past few years. I also don't really worry about mass mainstream adoption all that much. I think the only thing that really matters is sustainability.
The three things that really matter are having enough people to do development of the platforms, enough people to host servers, and enough users to generate content.
I'd argue that all of these requirements have already been met, and that means the fediverse will be around indefinitely. It might not grow quickly, but that's not necessarily a bad thing either. Rapid growth can be very disruptive and can derail the original ethos. I think slow and organic growth is far more preferable because new users end up internalizing the existing culture.
I'm not sure why you are getting downvoted. I'm optimistic for the same reasons and I think you are right about rapid growth being dangerous.
Linux was slow growth, not to mention GNU, but it is so good, and attracted the right kind of contribuitors.
Running these services has a cost and surely over the time it takes to grow, solutions will emerge. It is best to recognize those challenges and address them.
That's my thinking as well, there's an opportunity for a completely different kind of social ecosystem to develop that's not driven by the profit motive.