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Which prediction was supposed to happen already? (sopuli.xyz)

submitted 1 year ago* (last edited 1 year ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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During covid times I heard many interesting conspiracy predictions such as the value is money will fall to zero, the whole society will collapse, the vaccine will kill 99% of the population etc. None of those things have happened yet, but can you add some other predicitons to the list?

Actually, long before covid hit, there were all sorts of predictions floating around. You know, things like the 2008 recession will cause the whole economy to collapse and then we’ll go straight to Mad Max style post-apocalyptic nightmare or 9/11 was supposed to start WW3. I can’t even remember all the predictions I’ve heard over the years, but I’m sure you can help me out. Oh, just remembered that someone said that paper and metal money will disappear completely by year xyz. At the time that date was like only a few years away, but now it’s more like 10 years ago or something. Still waiting for that one to come true…

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[–] [email protected] 91 points 1 year ago (10 children)

Economic doomsayers have predicted ten out of the last three recessions.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 year ago (1 children)

It's honestly more surprising that they didn't predict them rather than predicting them.

Our economic system is based on bullshit theories that the rich make up to support their system, crashes are inevitable and they're increasingly more destructive each time.

Hopefully we dump them before climate change forces us to do so.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 year ago

When a prediction is wrong, that means something about the predictor's model of the world was incorrect. If we want to think clearly about the world, we have to actually notice when predictions fail.

If a commentator predicts an economic downturn every year, but most years do not have an economic downturn, that means the commentator's predictions were based on an incorrect model: incorrect beliefs or assumptions, bad or incomplete data, or some other source of error.

(Climate forecasts have a much better track record than economic commentators.)

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