this post was submitted on 01 Oct 2023
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I think things are gonna get really ugly in the next twenty years.
We're nearing a point where artificial intelligence can replace a lot of white collar and logistical jobs, which would skyrocket unemployment rates and lead to widespread riots.
Don't get me started on what a leftist pipe dream universal basic income is. The guaranteed income UBI would give would either bankrupt our economy or be such a pittance that nobody could live off of it
I did number crunching on how much it would cost to pay every UK adult a guaranteed basic income that could theoretically pay for rent in most cities outside of London, assuming £800 pcm and 50,000,000 adults. That would cost £480,000,000,000 a year, or almost 2.5 times our entire welfare budget, of which about £100b alone goes into pensions.
And before you suggest automation and wealth taxes would pay for UBI... good luck with that. We can't even get the rich to pay their fair share of taxes right at this moment.
Given how much politicians serve the rich, I think they'd sooner sic the military on protesters than actually cave in to the demands of the masses, especially when armed drones could do a lot of the gruntwork. The wealthy don't care if you're destitute, starving and living on the streets.
UBI isn't a leftist idea
It's a more radical version of welfare capitalism. Socialism is about worker control of the means of production. This would mean all the factories and agricultural land and cloud servers, etc would be owned by the people who work there. UBI is simply keeping the poor alive through subsidies. We do it already through all sorts of things. For example food prices are heavily subsidized. It's just taking that idea and taking it to the logical extreme.
It's not leftist at all. Leftists may support it because it will improve the living conditions for the bottom class. But fundamentally it does nothing to put the means of production into the hands of the workers. A leftist idea would be for example forcing all private companies to become cooperatives.
I agree with you that things are going to get ugly very soon. Our society simply isn't equipped to handle this dramatic transformation that is coming. I think we will likely see some sort of serious war going forward as well. I'm just glad I live far enough away from the likely nuclear bomb targets where I probably wouldn't die immediately, lol.
I think UBI is really the only solution that will be able to maintain our current capitalist system and way of life. Anything else would essentially lead to revolt. Idle hands are the devil's plaything. If 50% of the young people in the country aren't working, you're either going to see a massive prison complex or a militant revolt. Probably both.
UBI however would further our jump into dystopia. Imagine a society where the bottom 80% survive off of the government's hand. They live in ghettos, segregated from the people who own capital. Majority of the country live in abject poverty getting only basic necessities. Starting to sound a lot like 1984...
But it is. It may not be Communist or Socialist but it's a radical idea to redistribute wealth to the masses and effectively create a literal welfare state. Pretty much every party that supports UBI is left wing.
I think we'll see a full societal collapse in the next few decades, whether that's a descent into lawless anarchy or civil wars.
Ok we should have a clear definition of what left means so this conversation is clear. My definition of left is socialism and communism. Welfare capitalism is still right wing. Please feel free to share yours and we can see where we differ
UBI is an attempt to keep the capitalist state going through this radical change. Fundamentally, nothing changes. The people with capital still control the capital. Companies still exist and make profit in a market structure.
People aren't really suggesting this because they want to pay taxes. They are suggesting this because they are scared of the system falling apart. Do you have any other solutions? I really don't think there's a way to keep our current capitalist system and not have a UBI if +50% aren't working.
If we allow the system to collapse, we risk too much. Nazi Germany style authoritarian government with the current surveillance state capacities we have is an incredibly scary thought. They're even working on mind reading - they've done small scale experiments where machine learning models can listen to your brain waves and see what you are thinking.
We cannot allow fascism to have a serious resurgence. It's too dangerous.