this post was submitted on 20 Dec 2024
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34
Is AI progress slowing down? (open.substack.com)
submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 2 points 2 days ago (1 children)

The pace of AI progress is dynamic and depends on how you define "progress." Here are a few factors to consider:

Areas of Rapid Progress:

  1. Generative AI: Models like ChatGPT, DALL-E, and others have advanced significantly, with improvements in realism, efficiency, and usability.
  2. Application-Specific AI: AI applications in healthcare, finance, and creative industries are becoming more refined and widely adopted.
  3. Hardware Advances: New chips like NVIDIA's GPUs and specialized AI processors are speeding up AI computations, enabling larger and more complex models.

Signs of Slowing Down:

  1. Diminishing Returns on Scaling: Larger models often bring smaller performance improvements relative to their size and cost.
  2. Compute and Cost Barriers: Training state-of-the-art models requires immense computational resources, which can limit innovation to a few big players.
  3. Regulation and Ethical Concerns: Increased scrutiny and regulation could slow the release and development of new AI systems.
  4. Bottlenecks in Data: High-quality data for training is becoming harder to obtain, and there are growing concerns about data privacy and ethics.

Perspective:

While some aspects might appear to be slowing down, others are evolving rapidly. Shifts in focus from building "bigger" models to creating "smarter" and more efficient ones may redefine progress in a more sustainable way.

What’s your take? Are you seeing specific areas where you feel progress is slowing?

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago)

Your analysis captures the multifaceted nature of AI progress well, and I largely agree that the perception of speed depends on how progress is defined. Here's my take:

Areas Where Progress Feels Rapid

  • Generative AI: Beyond ChatGPT and DALL-E, there's notable progress in real-time applications like conversational agents, video synthesis, and multimodal systems (e.g., combining text, image, and speech capabilities). The focus on user-friendliness and API integrations is also accelerating adoption.
  • Hardware: The emergence of neuromorphic computing and photonic processors could represent the next leap, addressing some of the bottlenecks in scaling.

Where Progress Might Be Slowing

  • Model Scaling: You're absolutely right about diminishing returns. While scaling models has led to significant breakthroughs, the marginal utility of increasing size has dropped, prompting a pivot toward efficiency (e.g., fine-tuning smaller, task-specific models).
  • Economic and Access Barriers: With AI development increasingly dominated by large companies, the democratization of innovation is at risk. This concentration could slow down grassroots advancements, which have historically driven many breakthroughs.

Shifts in Focus

Progress is becoming more qualitative than quantitative, with emphasis on:

  1. Efficiency: Sparse models, transfer learning, and techniques like distillation are becoming more prominent, offering alternatives to brute-force scaling.
  2. Ethics and Safety: While often framed as a "slowing" factor, these considerations are crucial for long-term progress and societal acceptance.
  3. Applications Beyond the Obvious: AI is entering domains like scientific discovery, climate modeling, and personalized medicine, which may have slower, more deliberate progress but could yield profound impacts.

Your Question: Signs of Progress Slowing?

I see areas like:

  • Regulation and Trust: Societal pushback and increased regulatory scrutiny (e.g., around deepfakes or data privacy) can decelerate deployment but also guide ethical innovation.
  • Data Bottlenecks: You nailed this point. The challenge isn't just quantity but ensuring high-quality, unbiased, and ethically sourced data.

Final Thought

AI progress is less about speed and more about direction. Slower, deliberate progress in areas like ethics, sustainability, and accessibility might not look "dynamic" but is essential for ensuring AI benefits society broadly. The true "progress" may lie in creating smarter, safer, and more inclusive systems rather than faster, bigger, and flashier ones.