this post was submitted on 20 Dec 2024
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Is AI progress slowing down? (open.substack.com)
submitted 2 days ago* (last edited 2 days ago) by [email protected] to c/[email protected]
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[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 days ago

They didn't have much more than that computing power in the first place.

This whole AI hype is the same as the "big data" hype, just with decorations. That we now have enormous data (people are so connected they are visible to the world in detail unachievable before), enormous network connectivity and enormous computing resources and enormous centralization, so let's just combine these into something radically more powerful than what all these individuals with their boring science were trying to do without such awesome power. Only it's not more efficient somehow and they still can't understand why.

It's a reactionary breed of technologies. In year 1824 an artisan couldn't compete with a factory. But year 2024 is not like this. The radical breakthrough in architecture of digital economy is not a dumb repetition of the radical breakthrough of manufacturing economies back then. And it hasn't yet happened.

And speaking of visions for future, in my humble opinion the initial intent behind Java and the initial intent behind Web and the initial intent behind Unix, and more recently peer-to-peer systems with smart contracts and distributed storage and services, and cryptographic identities, and other such things, are the direction in which that breakthrough is to be found. Not in mimicking some dumbed down explanations from school history lessons, which can't possibly be complete enough.