this post was submitted on 07 Oct 2024
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I mean, I said what I said and I meant it. The Chinese are trailblazing a path nobody has tried before: DUV only for sub-10nm processes. It's not ideal, and the reason why nobody did it before is because they already had EUV by the time they got there.
But I wouldn't sleep on the ability of anyone to be able to solve problems using the tools at their disposal.
Especially since there's nothing stopping the mainland Chinese companies from hiring Taiwanese engineers.
Not a ton of people believed that Taiwan could surpass Japan, either, but that happened in the 90's. Not a ton of people believe that Japan can get back in the game, but Rapidus is making a play for 2nm.
Nothing is forever, and things are always changing. I'm somewhat optimistic that western sanctions will keep China from competing on the world stage at semiconductor fabrication, but I don't think it's a guarantee or in any way inevitable.