this post was submitted on 11 Sep 2024
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[–] [email protected] 19 points 1 month ago

I don't really have a fantastic prediction, because I don't feel like the major factors are really foreseeable at this point.

I think a big factor is what happens with Reddit and Twitter, since the Threadiverse and Mastodon are obvious alternatives.

Another is how well other alternatives, like Bluesky and Threads do.

I think that it's hard to call those factors.

I doubt that Mastodon or the Threadiverse, at least, will die soon. I think that they've got enough mass that even without any major influx, they could keep going.

I don't know about some of the other services. One ActivityPub-based system doing well doesn't mean another will, and some have not a lot of userbase.