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this post was submitted on 13 Aug 2024
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In this particular situation, if Boeing says it's safe, I would be inclined to trust them, because if they make the return happen, and it fails, Boeing is done fore. As a crew member though, I would pass for sure and wait for a Dragon
How many people died because boeing made shitty planes and didn’t train their crew properly?
Is boeing done for?
They get one last chance! If they kill these astronauts this time, we'll be really, really mad like for real!
Don't worry, we have enough tax payer's money to bail them out if anything goes wrong.
/s
I think messing up on NASA projects will hurt a company way more. Of course aviation is supposed to be safe, but even the 737 Max has flown thousands of hours. Comparing how many people that have flown on them, versus how many that have been hurt/killed, is still a small number, which is still is supposed to be zero of course.
Traversing space, a pinnacle of engineering, is quite another level of danger, and if you insist on your product being functional and safe, and then kills two astronauts, would cause a whole different level of backlash
How many deaths per 1000h does the max have?
347 apparently, across 7 years of operation
https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/business/boeing-737-max-the-troubled-history-of-fatal-crashes-and-346-deaths-in-7-years/articleshow/111566888.cms
They already couldn't afford this situation, and look where they are.
What's an improbable "acceptable risk" to them may not be good enough for NASA, especially if they don't really understand what's wrong.
True. Didn't think of it that way
I am not sure that businesses like Boeing make risk decisions like that. You would think that they would only take a risk that they know they can win, but many times they take a risk and hope that the dice land their way. This would be lives at risk, with calculations assessed by people with very poor records with such assessments.
They could feel like there's nothing more to lose if it doesn't make it back but they might be able to claw their way back if it succeeds. "They" being the individuals making the recommendation, not the individuals more concerned about the company overall. If Boeing decides the spaceflight industry isn't worth the risks, a downsize or complete closing of that part of the company could cost the jobs of those who are the experts in this situation.
So it might not be a case of "we think it's safe to return". It might be "returning safely is the only scenario where we aren't fucked, so let's roll the dice".
That's a very valid point