this post was submitted on 23 Apr 2024
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[–] [email protected] 88 points 8 months ago (2 children)

Even after the price cut, theirs is still 3x the price of Mercedes' system which works better. I have a feeling Tesla's earnings report won't go well this afternoon. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-earnings-q1-175358835.html

[–] [email protected] 46 points 8 months ago (3 children)

Tesla was overvalued when it hit 50$ pre stock split. Its continued rise over a period of years to one of the most valuable public companies is just mind boggling. But I think even now there is a lot of hesitance in shorting the stock as entire fortunes have been lost trying to predict a share price correction.

But we're about to find out whether Tesla truly transcends auto companies: https://bradmunchen.substack.com/p/could-tesla-go-bankrupt-the-odds

[–] [email protected] 26 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (4 children)

Tesla is nothing more than an elaborate stock pumping exercise built on a business of selling crappy cars to techbros. It’s valuation is propped up by lies, hype and virtual signaling. It also can’t survive without copious amounts of government subsidies and low interest loans, since the car business is so capital intensive. At some point, all of these problems will come to a head. It’s a matter of when, not if, that Tesla collapses in some form. Though it may be bought out before formally filing for bankruptcy.

[–] [email protected] 10 points 8 months ago (2 children)

The Model 3 and Model Y combined for more than 500,000 units sold last year in the US alone. Do you really think it’s only tech bros buying them?

[–] [email protected] 18 points 8 months ago

GM delivered five times that amount and yet Tesla is valued higher. It's painfully obvious that Tesla's stock is overpriced.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 8 months ago

The new camry is expected to sell 300 000 units in the US alone

[–] [email protected] 5 points 8 months ago

I don't think bankruptcy is going to happen. Despite economists' theoretical ideals, stock price has nothing to do with a company.

Tesla is selling cars at a profit whether the stock is $20 a share or $200. Long term the stock price should go to $20.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago

Its* valuation is propped up

[–] [email protected] 1 points 8 months ago

Didn't used to be, though. But yeah. Elmo's shame.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 8 months ago (1 children)

When considering shorting stocks it's important to remember one of Keynes' better quotes, "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

[–] [email protected] 6 points 8 months ago

And also that shorts have defined gains, but infinite losses

[–] [email protected] 2 points 8 months ago

Very good read, thanks.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 8 months ago* (last edited 8 months ago) (1 children)

which works better

That's debateable. The system Mercedes uses is extremely limited. It only works in certain cities during a certain time of the day on certain roads that are below certain speed limit. FSD work anywhere in the US even on roads that have not been mapped.

Drivers can activate Mercedes’s technology, called Drive Pilot, when certain conditions are met, including in heavy traffic jams, during the daytime, on spec ific California and Nevada freeways, and when the car is traveling less than 40 mph. Drivers can focus on other activities until the vehicle alerts them to resume control. The technology does not work on roads that haven’t been pre-approved by Mercedes, including on freeways in other states.

[–] [email protected] 7 points 8 months ago

That article is weirdly worded. The Mercedes pilot is specifically meant only for traffic jams (so you can do something else while the lane crawls along). Hence all the limitations. It's not cruise control. They have different tech for that, and it's not level 3. The level 3 traffic jam pilot might eventually grow into level 3 cruise control but for now they're distinct and Mercedes has not tried to pass one as the other afaik.