TempermentalAnomaly

joined 1 year ago
[–] [email protected] 2 points 14 hours ago

They could eventually spin it up, but would take longer than the months you first mention. Technical and material issues exist between yellow cake and weapons grade fissile material that the Ukrainian may not have access to (heavy water or plutonium). Even if they do, transforming their current civilian system would take several years optimistically.

Ultimately, that's my biggest issue is time. It's not months but years.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 day ago (2 children)

I don't know anything about the laws limiting transfer of fissile material and may violate issues with NATO membership. I'm not seeing the upside for Sweden to do any of this.

And from a quick search makes it sound like decommissioning of Ågestaverket began in 2020 and should be done in 2025. So the plant would need to be, essentially, rebuilt.

Next, the nuclear program was shut down in 1961 because they didn't have any Pu-240 to refine into Pu-247. Finally, when the program did exist, they had to get their heavy water from Norway. Heavy water allows them to use yellow cake directly for fissile material, but they still use light water but need an enrichment program. So, technically it's a long way still.

[–] [email protected] 6 points 1 day ago* (last edited 1 day ago) (8 children)

That was an interesting watch, but he doesn't put a clear timeline on how long it would take. I found this article that notes that:

The Prydniprovsky Chemical Plant in the city of Kamianske in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast processed uranium ore for the Soviet nuclear program, preparing yellowcake, an intermediate step in the processing of uranium ore.

It goes on to interview a couple of engineer about what they could be expected to produce, by when, and with what level of discresion:

Robert Kelley, an engineer with over 35 years of experience in the U.S. Department of Energy's nuclear weapons complex, said that it would be possible for Ukraine to create a primitive uranium fission bomb within five years.

"It's a fairly simple thing to do in the 21st century," he told the Kyiv Independent.

It would be much more difficult for Ukraine to build a plutonium fission bomb, and it would be harder to hide, Kelley argued. It would take five to 10 years to build a plutonium reactor, he added.

In contrast with a fission bomb, a "hydrogen bomb would be incredibly complicated," Kelley said. "No way in the world would (Ukraine) be able to create it," he added.

Kelley also said that Ukraine might be able to create a crude nucleardevice without assistance from other countries. For a more complex nuclear weapon, it would have to buy technology abroad, he added.

A Russian nuclear expert and a Ukrainian nuclear expert both confirmed to the Kyiv Independent that Ukraine is capable of producing a nuclear bomb, adding that it would likely take years. The Russian expert was speaking on the condition of anonymity for fear of reprisals, and the Ukrainian expert was not authorized to talk to the press about the issue.

"Ukraine would certainly have the knowhow and resources to become a nuclear weapons state if it made the political decision to do so," Lavikainen said. "The technology required is not out of reach for many countries, and certainly not for Ukraine since it housed crucial elements of the Soviet nuclear weapons complex when it was still part of the USSR."

"Ukraine could develop both nuclear warheads and carrier vehicles since it possesses the necessary military industry, uranium deposits, and nuclearenergy sector," Lavikainen continued.

Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, was more cautious, saying that creating a nuclear bomb "is not impossible" for Ukraine. But, it "will take years, a lot of money, and most likely external support, at least on the equipment side."

"Ukraine does not have the industrial capacity to manufacture and maintain a nuclear arsenal; it does not have fissile materials, enrichment capacity, plutonium production, most of the elements that go into a nuclear weapon capability," he added.

Liviu Horovitz, a nuclear deterrence specialist at theGerman Institute for International and Security Affairs, also said that Ukraine faces challenges if it decides to create a nuclear bomb.

"Ukraine surely has the scientific prerequisites for a nuclear weapons program," but "acquiring the necessary fissile materials is neither cheap nor fast nor very easy to do in secret," he added.

The nuclear weapons expert who spoke on condition of anonymity said that the most primitive nuclear bomb program focused on uranium centrifuges could cost around $100 million. A plutonium bomb program would cost around $1 billion, he added.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 1 day ago

It's all about that flux capacitor.

[–] [email protected] 18 points 1 day ago (13 children)

Everyone in this thread is talking like they could. Even if the country wasn't mired in a war of attrition, the process of building it takes time, expertise, money, and materials. They only have some of those. And not any money.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 2 weeks ago

Vampires need to ask permission to enter and physically can't without permission. Can the 'can' be read in both senses here?

[–] [email protected] 1 points 1 month ago

I wish I had a friend who could just be there while I tried to get it set up. Honestly, I'd peroxide pizza, beer, and video games just so I don't collapse in a mess of confusion and self doubt when something goes wrong. I don't mind doing the work, but I don't know if I have the patience to figure it all out.

[–] [email protected] 11 points 2 months ago

I'm not much of wine drinker myself, but I once did a chef menu with the wine pairing. Every two dishes, they'd bring out a new glass of wine. It was kind blowing how the would taste one way with the first dish and a completely different way with the second dish. I'm not sure I can tell the difference between a $12 bottle and $40 bottle, but in that one meal i understood two things: first, if you know what your doing, wine and food pairings can be magical and, second, I don't know what I'm doing.

[–] [email protected] 1 points 2 months ago* (last edited 2 months ago)

The author's photo is of her holding two oranges in one hand. I have unexpected joy from this.

[–] [email protected] 9 points 3 months ago

Yes! 100% this. The closest thing I've seen is Quick Accent in Power Toys for Windows. But something like what you've described is what I've always wanted.

I also thought about mapping this to Auto Hotkey, but didn't bother after finding Quick Accent.

[–] [email protected] 4 points 3 months ago

Each one of these recommendations raises more questions that previous one.

[–] [email protected] 2 points 3 months ago* (last edited 3 months ago)

Thanks for motivating me.

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