Except federation is already functional with 3rd party implementations. Sure it's possible they would choose to diverge in the official implementation in a closed branch, but that would not stop the rest of the clients from working. It's like if the biggest Mastodon instance went proprietary and shut down federation, the people who care would leave.
The main things they're working on are moderation tools suitable for federation as well as scaling
Nostr is a wildly different protocol from atprotocol and activitypub.
Activitypub is very much like email (SMTP) over http, pushing messages between servers. Atprotocol is instead using a model of a repository with profile and posts per user on federated servers along with aggregation servers (CDN-ish) and a pull model for retrieval. Nostr is a P2P protocol with "gossip nodes"