this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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Lots of companies have been saying they have solid state EV batteries for years, yet you still can't buy one. Either they can't figure out how to mass produce them cost effectively or there is some sort of problem with the battery.
I think toyota actually plans on getting there in the next few years. I think the current and final hurdle; which I'm guessing a couple different companies about have a complete handle on is the prevention of dendrites forming and causing the batteries to go bad from multiple charge cycles.
Toyota wouldn't be blowing fluff about having the batteries a few years away from production if they weren't confident about it happening. That's reserved for saying something is 7 to 10 years away.
Here's why I don't buy it- Toyota is still hyping hydrogen as the next gen fuel option. They barely have a BEV option, despite having a 15-year lead on electric drivetrains.
They're betting hard that BEVs are a small market.
If they kept systems as hybrids until better battery tech shows up, I still think that would be the best bet (for the US market, at least). Needing a 1500 pound battery that's hard as hell to replace, costs usually over $5,000 just for the battery, and will slowly degrade with time until complete failure in 15 years or so seems like a right bad idea for a large amount of people. Smaller batteries in shorter range models isn't good enough for trips away from town, and for the millions of people living in apartments, they have to charge away from home, which is often no cheaper than gasoline and takes longer. Hybrid systems are the sweet spot for now. No range anxiety, no plugging in, and no giant 1500 lb batteries, while the gas motors last ages because they aren't working as hard. When my old prius battery went out after being around 13 years old, I bought a new one from toyota for $1900 and swapped it out in an afternoon.
I don't think hydrogen will happen in the US. I think that's also a fairly poor choice just because of how much power it takes to make the stuff and getting stations for hydrogen all across the country.