this post was submitted on 29 Nov 2023
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I think toyota actually plans on getting there in the next few years. I think the current and final hurdle; which I'm guessing a couple different companies about have a complete handle on is the prevention of dendrites forming and causing the batteries to go bad from multiple charge cycles.
Toyota wouldn't be blowing fluff about having the batteries a few years away from production if they weren't confident about it happening. That's reserved for saying something is 7 to 10 years away.
I think it's more likely that Toyota dropped the ball on not investing in EVs early, so that they felt the need to announce they were working on some thing in hopes of staying relevant.
Toyota has been claiming to have EV-killing tech 3-5 years away for 20 years. It's part of the plan for selling hybrids.
This, 100%
I mean…. Really? Toyota kind of kicked off the whole EV shebang by introducing the first commercially successful hybrid in the Prius. And they’ve been innovating in the space ever since. Don’t mistake this for me believing they have a solid state battery right around the corner. But Japanese auto companies aren’t known for being on the forefront. They’re known for doing what everyone else does with better reliability and lower costs.
Toyota have announced several times already that they're "this close" 🤏 or only a few years away from releasing their first solid state battery EV...I'll believe it when I see it.
Me too. And their revolutionary hydrogen car that everyone will turn to by the year yesterday
No they haven't.
The same Toyota that declared that electric vehicles were a non-starter and that hydrogen vehicles were the future?
I think hydrogen will be in the future, but not for a while. Toyota is having to make lots of promises to make up for Kia and Hyundai eating their lunch.
That was several years ago when they wanted their developed hydrogen cars to get market and IMO, right now, they're still right. All electric with current batteries are still no good. Range anxiety, charge issues, batteries that are huge and have to be built under the vehicles in a way that extremely expensive to replace 10 plus years down the line when they start going bad. It's no good. Basically any car built that way in the sub $50,000 market will be worthless in around 15 years. Won't be worth the battery replacement cost.
Right now, until batteries are better, like solid states are supposed to be, hybrids are the way to go. Smaller, cheaper, easier batteries to replace, still great gas mileage, and no range anxiety or charge location issues. All electric just isn't realistic right now for most people. Now if you're a home owner with a garage and get a new vehicle every 5 years and don't need to take many long trips, or use a different vehicle for long trips, it could be great, but those people aren't most people.
I'm privileged in that I live in perhaps the country with the densest coverage of EV infrastructure anywhere (except for maybe a microstate or two), but in the 7 months of driving an EV I've not once experienced range anxiety.
You can't do huge roadtrips without a recharge every 250-350km in this relatively more affordable model, but for daily driving it's like waking up with a full tank every day. If I visit friends 200km away, I just park at a destination charger and walk the last 200 meters.
At least right now that's is a lot more viable than hydrogen. I can't fill up in my town. I can fill up near my work 35m away. But it would a hassle.
I speak more of the US market. There are plenty of other countries where an ev with a 200km range would work great, but in the US dense cities that no one ever goes anywhere from all have people living in apartments that can't charge at home and due to how expensive real estate there is, going to a rapid charge place and waiting there 30 minutes costs more than gasoline.
Then in the less dense places....well, I am a more extreme case, but my drive to work is 140 Km each way. The US is so huge and so many people at least have to occasionally drive do far, that a 200km vehicle just isn't enough. Doubly so for colder areas/times when that range is drastically reduced.
I think hybrids need to be built like EVs with on board range extender generators. I believe the Volt was that way but if you had enough battery to cover 120 miles full EV with plug-in recharge most of the time it would be full EV. Long trip? Generator kicks on at mile 100 and takes you an absurd distance.
The latest Toyota hybrids are pretty great but they need competition. Sadly the Volt died.
Kia/Hyundai/Ford/Audi should make "Range extender" versions trading half the battery pack for generator and fuel weights to up the pressure.
Full EV might not be great for long trips, but full ICE is silly compared to a hybrid.
Make the F-150 standard truck get 40mpg on gasoline on trips, EV around town and you have a winner.
They already have those. They're just called plug in hybrids. The prius plug in hybrid for instance, will go about 40 miles on electric only.
Toyota doesn't make batteries, they make press releases - the purpose of which is to dissuade you from buying a BEV, in case you find out how good they are.
Here's why I don't buy it- Toyota is still hyping hydrogen as the next gen fuel option. They barely have a BEV option, despite having a 15-year lead on electric drivetrains.
They're betting hard that BEVs are a small market.
If they kept systems as hybrids until better battery tech shows up, I still think that would be the best bet (for the US market, at least). Needing a 1500 pound battery that's hard as hell to replace, costs usually over $5,000 just for the battery, and will slowly degrade with time until complete failure in 15 years or so seems like a right bad idea for a large amount of people. Smaller batteries in shorter range models isn't good enough for trips away from town, and for the millions of people living in apartments, they have to charge away from home, which is often no cheaper than gasoline and takes longer. Hybrid systems are the sweet spot for now. No range anxiety, no plugging in, and no giant 1500 lb batteries, while the gas motors last ages because they aren't working as hard. When my old prius battery went out after being around 13 years old, I bought a new one from toyota for $1900 and swapped it out in an afternoon.
I don't think hydrogen will happen in the US. I think that's also a fairly poor choice just because of how much power it takes to make the stuff and getting stations for hydrogen all across the country.