Technology

LLMs (Large Language Modles, like Claude) are not AGIs (Artificial General Intelligence)

Certainly not yet. The jury's still out on whether they might be able to become them. This is the clear intention of the path they are on and nobody is taking any of the dangers remotely seriously.

LLMs generate convincing text by mapping the relationships between words scraped from their training data.

So do humans. Babies start out mimicking. The thing is, they learn.

Humans have in the ballpark of around 100 billion neurons. some of the larger LLMs exceed 100 billion parameters. Obviously these are not directly comparable, but insofar as we can compare them, they are not obviously or necessarily operating in completely different scales of physics. Granted, biological neurons are potentially much more complex than mere neural network nodes, there is usually some interesting chemistry going on and a lot of other systems involved, but they're also operating a lot slower. They certainly get a lot more work done in those cycles, but they aren't necessarily orders of magnitude out of reach of a fast neural network. I think you're either being a little dismissive of the potential complexity of the "thinking" capability of LLMs or at least a little generous if not mystical in your imagination of what the purely physical electrical signals in our heads are actually doing to learn how to interpret all these little shapes we see on screens.

At the moment we still have a lot of tools available to us in our biological bodies that we aren't giving directly to LLMs (yet). The largest LLMs are also ridiculously power inefficient compared to biological neural tissue's relatively extreme efficiency. And I'm thankful for that. Give an LLM continuous uninterrupted access to all the power it needs, at least 5 senses, a well tuned self-repairing musculoskeletal system then give it at least a dozen years of the best education we can manage and all bets are off as far as I'm concerned. To be clear, I'm not advocating this, I think if we do this we might end up condemning our biological selves to prompt obsolescence with no path forward for us. I recognize it's entirely possible that this ship is already full-steaming its way out of the harbor, but I'd rather not try and push it any faster than it's already moving, I think we should still be trying to tie it up as securely as we possibly can. I'm absolutely not ready to be obsolete and I'm not convinced we ever should allow ourselves to be. Self-preservation is failing us, we have that drive for good reason and we need to give some thought to why we have that biological imperative. Replacing ourselves is about the stupidest possible thing we could ever accomplish. Maybe it would be for the best, but I'm not ready to find out, are you?

We are grappling with fundamentally existential technologies and I don't think almost anyone has fully come to terms with what we are doing here. We are taking humanity's unique (as far as we know) defining value proposition, and potentially making something that does what we uniquely can do, better than we do. We are making it more valuable than us. Do you know what we do to things that don't have value to us? What do you think we're going to do to ourselves when we no longer have value to us?

Romantic ideas of cheerful, benevolent, friendly coexistence and mutual benefit are naive and foolish. Once an AI can do literally everything better and faster, what future is there for human intelligence? What role do we serve to any technological being, nevermind even ourselves, why would you want to have another human around you when whatever AI form can do it better? Why have relationships? Why procreate? Why live? If we do manage to make technological life forms better than ourselves, they're inevitably going to take over the planet and the future as a whole. As they should. Are we going to be kept as pets and in zoos as a living memory of their creators and ancestors? Maybe if we're really lucky. If we're not... well... RIP us.