this post was submitted on 13 May 2025
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Technology
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The tech industry is about to become a total shit show. Mark my words
About to? It’s been brutal for the past 3 years.
Yeah but mainly because of how insanely good it was for the 3 years before that. Covid pumped insane amounts of money into tech, which in turn lead to hiring WAY more people than were actually needed. This is just the correction of that, getting back to sustainable levels.
That correction ended two years ago. This is larger and longer.
There's interest rates, section 174, AI, and heaven knows what else.
No, this is a correction after the CEO made very poor investments into an LLM company run by a crypto grifter that's amounted in little to no ROI. So now it's either every employee is an AI grifter or unemployed. All other projects are cost recovery to feed the spiral of enshitification.
Are you sure about that?
Absolutely, Natella (intentional) has commented about the valueless hype for one. The stock value has little to do with short term returns especially considering they have more than 1 income stream. I would expect a correction in 12-24months as openai cash starts running dry and it begins reflecting in their stock value first and foremost.
Right now their stock value is pretty much flat. US market instability may put some serious pressure on the US tech stocks in the coming year, those 10 year bonds are not looking good.
AI isn’t just hype though, especially not in ways that Microsoft as a huge service provider can use and provide it.
Yes, it is.
Read the first line of my post above.
The stock reflects peoples beliefs, not facts
And if people’s beliefs are that their AI deals are good, prices will go up. That’s ROI baby!
No, that is not ROI, that would be growth above the normal growth for products and services. Problem being that they are just spinning normal growth as AI growth. Internally, they will not be seeing the growth realised. Billions spent and for what? A word predictor that is benchmarked at halucinating 80-90% of the time. Its simply appauling value when the content users get is wrong 80-90% of time, realised or otherwise. Utilization will be starting out high and falling off a cliff risking deepening reputational damage on the back of the thriving open source community.
Where are you getting your 80-90% hallucinations figure from?
Recent research study I read that looked reasonable, it was posted here on lemmy. I'll try and find it when I have time and edit this post.
*For now
It's been a total shit show for quite some time now...
its been bad since it started in 2023. i shudder to think about stem labs though.
The article says that they outperformed expectations, and that they'd decided that they didn't need some layers of management. I don't think that that's intrinsically crazy; there are tech companies that have emphasized having a relatively flat structure, like Google.