this post was submitted on 04 Apr 2025
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People are generally shit at understanding probabilities and even when they have a fairly strong math background tend to explain probablistic outcomes through anthropomorphism rather than doing the more difficult and "think-painy" statistical analysis that would be required to know if there was anything more to it.
I myself start to have thoughts that balatro is purposefully screwing me over or feeding me outcomes when it's just randomness and probability as stated.
Ultimately, it's easier (and more fun) for us to think that way and it largely serves us better in everyday life.
But these things are entire casinos' worth of probability and statistics in and of themselves, and the people developing them want desperately to believe that they are something more than pseudorandom probabilistic fancy autocomplete engines.
A lot of the folks at the forefront of this have paychecks on the line. Add the difficulty of getting someone to understand how something works when their salary depends on them not understanding it to the existing inability of humans to reason probabilistically and the AGI from LLM delusion becomes near impossible to shake for some folks.
I wouldn't be surprised if this AI hype bubble yields a cult in the end.