this post was submitted on 13 Jan 2025
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Genie's out of the bottle now though. The casual-attracting features needed to be in place before twitter exploded. They weren't. Bluesky's were. Casuals don't care about what-ifs or principles, it's a miracle Musk let Twitter get so terrible that the casuals even noticed. It'll take a monumental event now to get the casuals to switch again from the blueskys they just made and got invested in.
I hear what you're saying and think you have a good point. It's very likely that Mastodon will stay a minor player, but I also think it will live on as a viable alternative to the major social networks. There are a lot of people dedicated to developing, running, posting, etc. to keep it lively. There is also the factor that Mastodon will always be there if (when) X or BlueSky stumble and make a mistake that will send another chunk of users over.
There's also just the naming problem. Social media works best when its name sounds like a place and its verbs sound like normal actions. Mastodon is a three syllable elephant (or a metal band), versus a sky or a book (note: this isn't a hard and fast rule, since Twitter and Instagram pulled it off). And they call their posts toots. Officially, too, unlike the user-made meme of "Skeets". Toots are farts. No politician or business professional is going to say "retoot" with a straight face.