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xkcd #3015: D&D Combinatorics (xkcd.com)

submitted 1 month ago by [email protected] to c/[email protected]

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Look, you can't complain about this after giving us so many scenarios involving N locked chests and M unlabeled keys.

https://explainxkcd.com/3015/

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[–] [email protected] 5 points 1 month ago* (last edited 1 month ago) (1 children)

The type of dice used can meaningfully impact this. The chance of a 2 or 12 rolling 2d6 is 1/36, the chance rolling 1d8+1d4 is 1/32. The chance of rolling 7 on 2d6, the most common result, is 1/6. The chance of rolling a 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 on a 1d8+1d4, all equally likely, is 1/8 each.

Unlike you I can’t begin to remember the elegant way to find this. I also assume Randall would have it at least close to right.

[–] [email protected] 3 points 1 month ago

Anydice.com can handle this stuff easily. As already pointed out in another comment, it does perfectly match. What it will not tell you is if you grabbed one or 2 arrows, though presumably a roll of 1-x could be used to say you got one, and x+1-15 means you got two.