this post was submitted on 11 Nov 2024
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Honestly, this is a no-brainer from Taiwan's POV. The second our economies can get by without Taiwan is the second various governments start questioning whether it's worth it to ally with them, especially with China trying to undermine Taiwan and anybody who supports them all they can.
In a bizarre way, semiconductor manufacturing for Taiwan has become like nuclear weapons are for other countries.
They've made themselves effectively uninvadable because doing so would be an absolute catastrophe for everyone else, including the aggressor.
It's shocking how much it lines up with MAD doctrine, yet in a completely non-lethal way.
I want advanced semiconductor manufacturing to be less centralised, but Taiwan would be foolish to give up this leverage and security.
I wonder what kind of securities Taiwan needs in order to bargain with china about it.
Joining NATO, being able to be officially recognised as a sovereign country without immediate sanctions by China against whoever did that? Permanent stationing of western troops?
I feel as if China giving up the claim to Taiwan in exchange for Taiwan's product capabilities to be made available within the mainland China would lead to China becoming the new global superpower for sure.
Their security guarantees involve “we will melt our chip foundries to slag if the PRC invades”. That’s not a joke. That’s an official element of their strategic defense policy. They are pointedly tying the bleeding edge of semiconductor manufacturing - which corresponds to a very fucking big chunk of the global economy - to their sovereignty and territorial integrity. And it’s frankly an extremely shrewd policy.
I haven't kept up. Are they still 10 years ahead of their competitors? I know they had better yields than, let's say, Samsung.
Even intel is using TSMC for their latest 200 series chips. Technology is one thing, doing it at scale is another. Samsung is close but still behind.
https://www.tomshardware.com/news/samsung-says-it-will-beat-tsmc-to-4nm-production-in-the-us
They are still bleeding edge. Samsung is making really impressive strides, but TSMC is simultaneously not resting on their laurels.
If Ukraine has taught us anything, no guarantees are enough.
Ukraine's were Russian honest word.
They had a lot of nukes, shouldn't have given them all to Russia. It was a case of western pressure btw. Not having too many nuclear powers and all that.
ahh... the "Ukraine success formula". I don't think Taiwan leadership is as "strong" as Ukraine's to suicide the country for US diminishment ambitions. About 80% of Taiwan public opinion favours a versions of status quo.