this post was submitted on 22 Oct 2024
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I actually have fairly high hopes for Intel's 18A and the upcoming technology changes presenting competition for TSMC (including others like Samsung and the Japanese startup Rapidus). And even if it turns into a 3-way race among Asian companies, the three nations are different enough that there's at least some strength in diversity.
TSMC's dominance in the last decade I think can be traced to their clear advantage in producing finFETs at scale better than anyone else. As we move on from the finFET paradigm and move towards GAA and backside power delivery, there are a few opportunities to leapfrog TSMC. And in fact, TSMC is making such good money on their 3nm and 4nm processes that their roadmap to GAAFETs and backside power is slower than Intel's and Samsung's, seemingly to squeeze the very last bit out of finFETs before moving on.
If there's meaningful competition in the space, we might see lower prices, which could lead to greater innovation from their customers.
Do I think it will happen? I'm not sure. But I'm hopeful, and wouldn't be surprised if the next few process nodes show big shakeups in the race.