this post was submitted on 19 Sep 2024
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They feel like there is less crime, because they have bought into security theater.
Ironically security theater can have a a placebo effect on crime rates as well. It turns out that the likelihood that someone commits a crime is strongly correlated to the chance they believe they will get caught, not the actual chance of getting caught. That’s why fake security cameras are so effective.
Hate to say it (re: security theater), but I think that is correct. I've read articles stating a drop in crime in places where they just have a cardboard cutout of police officers in the window.
It could also just have been a hot August, leading people to feel lethargic and steal less than they did earlier in the year? (How reliable do we think this data actually is btw?)