this post was submitted on 24 Jan 2024
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I‘d be really surprised if Apple tried that.
They have to know that it violates the DMA. And the penalty for violating it can be up to 10% of their yearly worldwide revenue (not earnings!) for the first violation and up to 20% for repeated violations. I don‘t think they‘d risk that, especially as the EU really isn’t known for its leniency when someone intentionally breaks their rules.
I'm not too sure that these actions violate the letter of the law here, even though I agree that they're 100% in violation of the spirit of the law.
It's been some years since I've put the mobile development world behind me, in no small part because of Apple's shenanigans, but the way I understand how this might work - Apple may be required to allow "iOS software" to be installed from third party stores, but software that runs on iOS must either be signed using a certificate that only allows installation in a developer or enterprise context (which require explicit and obvious user consent to that specific use case, and come with other restrictions such as the installation only lasting for a limited period of time), or through an "appstore" certificate that allows installation on any device, but the actual application package will need to go through Apple's pipeline (where I believe it gets re-signed before final distribution on the App Store). All certificates, not just the appstore ones, are centrally managed by Apple and they do have the power to revoke, or refuse to renew, any of those certificates at-will.
If my understanding is correct (I'd appreciate if any up-to-date iOS devs could fact-check me), then Apple could introduce or maintain any restrictions they please on handling this final signing step, even if at the end of the day the resulting software is being handed back to developers to self-distribute, they can just refuse to sign the package at all, preventing installation on most consumer iOS devices, and to refuse to re-issue certificates to specific Apple developer accounts they deem in violation of their expected behavior. I haven't read the implementation of the DMA in detail, nor am I a lawyer, so I'm not sure if there are provisions in place that would block either of these actions from Apple, but I do expect that there will be a long game of cat and mouse here as Apple and the EU continue to try and one-up the other's actions.
But the article of the DMA says that the gatekeeper shall not prevent the business user to serve their product using other conditions than those of the gatekeeper's platform. I think that would include Apple's publishing guidelines.
I think that's the rub, in my theoretical scenario, Apple is not blocking the distribution or sale of iOS applications through third-party means, they'd enforce their existing restrictions on and power over building iOS applications in the first place. Developers would absolutely still be able to distribute unsigned applications - end user iOS devices would just be unable to install them.
It sounds ridiculous to me, and as I wrote earlier, it would be a clear violation of the spirit of the DMA, but I don't see any reason why this scenario would not be technically possible for Apple to pull off.
Installation is part of distribution
They already make it hard to make an app without xcode
Your description matches my understanding of the process (as someone who left iOS development a few years ago).
I don’t think that the DMA is technical enough to differentiate in this precise manner. Keep in mind that it was written by lawmakers and politicians who mostly don’t know how to even use a smartphone. They'd think that a certificate is a piece of paper with fancy signatures on it.
I could be wrong on this, and don’t know all the details in the case, but EU-law is often interpreted teleologically, meaning in a way that is the most in accordance with the objectives and goals of the legislation. So in this case, if Apple is in violation of the spirit of the law, the EU Courts would likely rule against Apple. (source: 1st year law student)