this post was submitted on 19 Nov 2023
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I know very little of the situation (as does everyone else not directly involved), but out of experience, when the people making a thing are saying one thing and the people selling the thing (and thus running the show for some reason) feel everything is just fine, it means not great things for the final product....which in this case is the creation of sentient artificial life with unknown future ramifications....
A far more likely scenario is that they have been overstating what the software can do and how much room for progress remains with current methods.
AI has blown up so fast with so much hype, that I’m very skeptical. I’ve seen what it can do, and it’s impressive over past machine learning algorithms. But it does play on the human tendency to anthropomorphize things.
I've not been super stoked on ai specifically because of my track record using them. Maybe it's my use case (primarily technical/programming/cli questions that I haven't been able to answer myself) or my prompts are not suited for ai assistance, but I've had dozens of interactions with the various ai bots (bard, bing, gpt3/3.5) have been disappointing to say the least. Never gotten a correct answer, rarely given correct syntax, and it frequently just repeats answers I've already told it are incorrect and/or just don't work.
Ai has been nothing more than a disappointment to me.
Kagi Premium includes GPT-4, at least that's what I use.
Eli5? I'm assuming this has something to do with the prompt?
From what I understand he was fired by the non-profit board of the company and it's the investors and money people who want him back. It sounds like the opposite, the people making it are becoming concerned about what is about to start happening with this tech.
Experts from different companies have been saying AGI within a decade and that Al the current issues seem solvable.
AGI has been five to ten years away for decades.
Sounds like fusion power lol
I was actually thinking the same thing when I wrote it but I think we may finally actually be getting somewhat close to that, and I don’t think we’re even remotely close to discussing AGI outside of pure science fiction. LLMs have made us appear deceptively close; they can spit out sentences that look like stuff people write, but we haven’t moved even marginally closer to true comprehension, which would be required for actual AGI.
I was about to respond with pretty much the top half of what you said. But I think an early step in AGI is how we start splitting hairs about what "counts." And the number of things that we were "supposed" to always be better at keep changing with each new advance.
In ten years I don't think we will have clear, unquestionable Artificial General Intelligence, but I think there will be some people trying to explain that yes the model can act and respond exactly as a human would in the exact same circumstance but it's not really thinking or feeling anything. I certainly don't think the AI we're playing with in 10 years will be based primarily on text prediction, but there are still just so many different routes being explored in this field, it sure doesn't feel like a real plateau yet. Maybe I'll change my mind when GPT5 is only marginally more capable than GPT4.